A dispute over how to divvy up the pot in an interrupted game of chance led early mathematicians to invent modern risk ...

Native Americans have been playing with dice in games of chance for more than 12,000 years, according to a new paper published in the journal American Antiquity. And the oldest examples of Native ...

The Storm Prediction Center has officially rolled out its new way of communicating intensity regarding tornado, damaging wind, and hail outlooks. Currently, the center issues outlooks on a scale from ...

The Storm Prediction Center will be making changes to its convective outlook. The SPC issues severe weather outlooks for the entire country. The new changes will take effect on March 3, 2026.

Abstract: Belief propagation (BP) is an efficient algorithm for calculating approximate marginal probability density function (PDF) in large-scale Gaussian graphical models. It is known that when BP ...

Online data has the potential to transform how researchers and companies produce election forecasts. Social media surveys, online panels, and even comments scraped from the internet can offer valuable ...

where $l$ and $u$ are the lower and upper probability bounds, while $\phi$ and $\psi$ denote propositional logic formulas. For example the following two sentences ...

OGUNQUIT, Maine — Joan Griswold, the chair of the town’s Marginal Way Committee, recently described the fundraising efforts of the Marginal Way Preservation Fund as “stupendous.” How stupendous? Well, ...

Whenever the threat for severe weather exists across eastern Iowa, you've likely seen us show the severe weather risk. This outlook is actually produced by the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and ...