Marty Makary was appointed commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 2025. The prominent surgeon, medical researcher, bestselling author, and critic of the medical ...

It’s estimated that human adults make about 35,000 decisions a day — the percentage of good decisions depends on the adult. These choices can be as banal as deciding to roll or crumple toilet paper or ...

We live in a world where a lot of things seem to happen by pure chance, from winning the Lotto to losing your car keys. But the truth is, the likelihood of many everyday things happening is heavily ...

Bayes' theorem, also called Bayes' rule or Bayesian theorem, is a mathematical formula used to determine the conditional probability of events. The theorem uses the power of statistics and probability ...

Last month I reviewed the excellent book, Superforecasting by Dan Gardner and Philip E. Tetlock. Now while we can’t predict the future, we certainly can create a model for the probability of an event ...